30-year Conventional Conforming Mortgage Rates
Verses Economic Crisis, Inflation, then Recession
1973 Oil crisis and 1974 Stock
market crash
1/1973 8.54 1
point
11/1973 8.58 1 point
3/1975 8.89 1.1 point
12/1975 9.1 1 point
January -July 1980 Volker tries to curb
inflation/ W shaped
12/1978 10.3
1.4 points
July 1981 -11/1982 Iran Revolution
oil prices
9/1981 13.9
1.7 points
10/1981 18.16
2.1 points
July 1990 -March 1991 Oil prices skyrocket
7/1990 12.03 2.5 points
3/1991 9.52
2 points
3/2001- 11/2001 dot com bubble
3/2001 6.05 2 points
11/2007- June 2009 Housing Crash
11/2007 6.01
.5 point
12/2009 4.98
.5 point
1/2020- 4/2020 Covid
11/2020 2.77
.7 point (lowest point)
5/2022 - future post covid/ oil/ Russia/supply chain
January –
current rate
|
Mortgage rates are determined by market forces. Some of the market is data but most is emotion in my opinion. Today American news media is governed by fear, that is what sells. My prediction is rates will rise to 7.75 during the summer and fall back in around Halloween to 5 percent. Rates are for conforming conventional loans which is governed by the GSE's.
Overall historic chart here from Freddie Mac