Mortgage Rates Fall

Governor Brown get the State Troopers to Open Yosemite
Mortgage rates declined in end of September after the Federal Reserve held off slowing its $85-billion-a-month in bond purchases. The bond buys hold mortgage rates downward.

Longer-term rates have also stayed low because of the partial government vacation. Information is still available to analyze.

PPI - M/M change 0.3 % 0.2 % -0.2 % to 0.4 % n.a. %

PPI -Yr/Yr change 1.4 % n.a. %

PPI less food and energy - M/M change 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.0 % to 0.2 % n.a. %

PPI less food and energy - Yr/Yr change 1.2 % n.a. %

This release is delayed due to federal budget issues

Released On 10/11/2013 8:30:00 AM For Sep, 2013

Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual

Retail Sales - M/M change 0.2 % 0.0 % -0.3 % to 0.5 % n.a. %

Retail Sales less autos - M/M change 0.1 % 0.4 % 0.1 % to 0.7 % n.a. %

Less Autos & Gas - M/M Change 0.1 % 0.4 % 0.1 % to 0.5 % n.a. %

This release is delayed due to federal budget issues.

Market Consensus before announcement

Retail sales in August increased 0.2 percent in August after a 0.4 percent gain the month before. This was the weakest gain in four months. However, autos jumped 0.9 after a 0.5 percent dip in July. Retail sales excluding autos edged up 0.1 percent, following a 0.6 percent rise the month before. Gasoline sales were flat, following a 0.7 percent spike in July. Excluding the auto and gasoline components, sales nudged up 0.1 percent, following a 0.6 percent boost in July. Within the core, the numbers were mixed. More recently, unit new motor vehicle sales dropped a sharp 5.1 percent in September.

JOBS reports to come in October. 

I predicted a rate Fall in around Halloween. Lenders who know me, they see me at Laguna Beach, Laguna Niguel OCAR, and Rancho Santa Margarita meetings have thanked me for being “right on” yet another time. I advised all Borrowers in August and September 2013 who had to close to do a zero points loan because a short decline is ahead before the 31st of October 2013. More than twenty Borrowers and 22 colleagues have commended me for having the proverbial crystal ball.

May I further predict: Retail sales for consumer goods going into the holiday season are not going to rise. Have you seen families carrying bags at the mall? South Coast Plaza (the mecca for the wealthy here in Orange County) has walkers, window shoppers and 82% without a purchase bag in hand.

The shutdown that began this month spurred investors to sell stocks and buy Treasury bonds. Mortgage rates tend to follow the yield on the 10-year Treasury note. The 10-year note traded at 2.67 percent Wednesday, up from 2.63 percent last week but down from 2.71 percent on Sept. 23.

The shutdown will certainly slow a housing recovery, if it drags for more than ten more working days. Federal employees are unpaid and not at their desk, but when they return we still owe them dough.

Jan Brewer today negotiated an agreement with the U.S. Department of Interior to reopen Grand Canyon National Park using state and local funds amid the ongoing federal government shutdown. Jerry Brown place the State troopers to open Yosemite and show this country who we are. Californian retirees will show up if you rally them to help run the parking and dust off the Ahwanhee. Think out of the box Governors.

On the home front, borrowers who applied at the big banks can’t to close on their mortgages on time. Some lenders are having a hard time getting confirmation of applicants' income tax returns and Social Security data because of government agency closures, delaying some mortgage closings. USDA loans are at a halt. FHA loans for certain lender bank systems are also stalled.

Furloughs at the Federal Housing Administration cripple the agency's already slow processing of loan guarantees for some low- to moderate-income borrowers and first-time homebuyers.

Meanwhile I am open for business and happy to help you close your loan.

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