Mortgage Rates Verses Historic Recessions and Economic Inflation

30-year Conventional Conforming Mortgage Rates

Verses Economic Crisis, Inflation, then Recession

1973 Oil crisis and 1974 Stock market crash

1/1973     8.54  1 point

11/1973   8.58  1 point

3/1975     8.89  1.1 point

12/1975   9.1    1 point

 

 

January -July 1980 Volker tries to curb inflation/ W shaped

 

12/1978   10.3  1.4 points

 

July 1981 -11/1982 Iran Revolution oil prices

 

9/1981     13.9  1.7 points

10/1981  18.16  2.1 points

 

 

July 1990 -March 1991 Oil prices skyrocket

 

7/1990  12.03  2.5 points

3/1991  9.52    2  points

 

3/2001- 11/2001 dot com bubble

 

3/2001  6.05  2 points

 

11/2007- June 2009 Housing Crash

 

11/2007 6.01 .5 point

12/2009 4.98 .5 point

 

1/2020- 4/2020 Covid

11/2020 2.77 .7 point (lowest point)

 

 

5/2022 -  future post covid/ oil/ Russia/supply chain

January – current rate

3.45 0.7 3.76 0.8 4.17 0.8 4.98 0.8 5.23 0.9 6.25

I am not an Economist but as you see in the past most recessions were triggered by oil related financial crisis. I'm saying we are in recession now today 6/23/2022. Our current Administration had a goal to get US off oil dependency but we are no where near that reality today. Gas at my local pump is $6.50

Mortgage rates are determined by market forces. Some of the market is data but most is emotion in my opinion. Today American news media is governed by fear, that is what sells. My prediction is rates will rise to 7.75 during the summer and fall back in around Halloween to 5 percent. Rates are for conforming conventional loans which is governed by the GSE's.

Overall historic chart here from Freddie Mac

https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms30 

Attorney Opinion Letters Verses Title Policy Costs

 Attorney Opinion Letter instead of ALTA Title Policy

Attorney Opinion Letter hereafter referred to as AOL

(not America Online)

Lists on a yellow pad 

helps to see and predict from

data the best future course of action.

 How much does a loaf of bread cost?

PRO:

• AOL is cheaper on transactions from $750000- $999000.
• Saves consumer money on luxury transaction
• In the future may create price improvement from competition
• Change is good

 

CON:

• Pricing under $400000 loan amount is higher for AOL
• Under $400000 ALTA title insurance cheaper and more coverage
• Time to provide the AOL vs digital title is much slower, an additional four days
• Cost for Lender to convert and plug in option to Loan Operating System expenses on back of lender
• Cost to train Point of Sale on which type order upfront day one and which product matches is high
• AOL does not allow free cancellation if Lender needs to convert to ALTA.
• Relies upon Attorney staying in business for thirty years and not dying or retiring.
• Attorney can be sanctioned, lose license, lose insurance thus no coverage.

• Claims process to be invented by attorney is new with no back-end process worked out.
• Point of sale must know if subject is PUD, odd, or manufactured before they order and if is a sale listing agent has no idea, sometimes consumer doesn’t even understand what they own.
• Lender and servicer take on more risk that: GSE forces buy back on incorrectly coded or incorrect property type.
•  Statute of limitations varies state by state (some are seven years and the loan is a 30 year mortgage

 

Unknown future 

The best way to shape the future is to envision it early on and start manufacturing it today.”
― Abhijit Naskar, I Vicdansaadet 

Speaking: No Rest Till The World is Lifted

• Title companies can reduce ALTA costs on luxury to compete
• AOL cost can change as they have claims, need to ramp up customer service staff, and accommodate lender questions and problems
• Other Law firms come to market with Nationwide book of attorneys and forms that accommodate and compete. The software is easy to imitate.
• How could AOL cover for the endorsements that lenders want: 100, 104.1   110.9   116
• Can AOL’s build nationwide better insurance for errors and omission at what cost?
• HELOC product development HELOC doesn't use either
• Two unit condo conversions, PUD’s with unrecorded CCR’s and many non stand alone single family houses exist in America. These are not covered.
•  

The medium sized lender doesn’t want to take the leap:

• Refinance is gone for the next three years. Only refinances for probate, death, divorce, and disaster will be requested.
• Cost to train and link into operating systems. Sales, processing, Underwriting, Quality Control and Servicing have to learn to read the AOL. Build new labeling systems and look for red flags.
• It is easy to record fraudulent deeds. Liability and manpower to deal with fraud weighs on Servicer and Lender to wade through.
• Can lender verify attorney competence? Not yet. No vetting system.
•  AOL malpractice insurance policy variety and not transparent
• A Attorney issuing the title opinion letter is required to be state licensed to practice law in the jurisdiction where the subject property is located. Lender needs to lookup license on Bar Association manually. Necessary to set up National rating and vetting system. What is "normal" for a county?
• When there is an error theLender has to check letter against a checklist and develop standards to be able to send back the AOL for revision. What is the cost to cure? Will attorney charge $400 and hour? Title companies do this for free
• Gap coverage  between the loan closing and recording of the mortgage gap coverage is the time period between lender sends a wire through the Federal Reserve and when the title company or attorney send the e-filing to the county recorder and the time the recorder takes to review and post the fact that it changed.

• Attorneys are only responsible for their negligence, not hidden defects and mistakes in the public records. They are not responsible for lot line errors, survey errors, construction that
• fraud is not covered
• Lender bears the burden that the AOL is worded according to what GSE requires as to indemnification

AOL EXCLUDES:

§  Condominium Project

§  Cooperative Share Loan

§  Leasehold estate

§   Manufactured Home

§  Property subject to restrictive agreements or restrictive covenants

§  Executed using a power of attorney

§  A Texas Equity Section 50(a)(6) Mortgage

§  A Community Land Trust Mortgage

§  No PACE loans no HERO loans

§  No Adjustable Rate Loans

§  No environmental Protection Liens (no tanks, no prior gas station, not in proximity to Disaster Area

§  Planned Unit Developments (PUDs) for which an attorney's opinion of title was obtained in lieu of a title insurance policy shall be eligible for purchase, provided that:

§  There is no violation of any restrictive covenants that are in the PUD constituent documents and restrict the use of the land

§  All dues applicable to the Mortgages Premises are current and not delinquent (never happens someone is always on payment plan)

§  No recorded right of first refusal to purchase the land was exercised or could have been exercised on or before the closing date of the Mortgage and the undersigned is unaware of the existence or the exercise of any right of first refusal on or before the closing date of the Mortga

Colin Fisher gave example that the cost of AOL is $700 verses a title policy costing $10000 which is incorrect numbers. He uses the maximum limit as the cost comparison. This is not a new product it has been in market for fifteen years. Freddie adopted the use three years ago with no increase in switch from ALTA title policy to AOL.

Also there are many law firms who offer today AOL

I AM A NUMBERS GIRL:

On a PA or TX $900000 refinance Voxtur charges $1000 plus $150 for CPL vs three title company quotes of $4543 and $100 but he misses some marks.

Title companies do not have a regulatory floor that discourages them from lower pricing. Costs are regulated ceilings.

AOL rolled out in four states with limited products. 

The GSE’s are also only seventy five percent of the whole market. No cash out refinances. Only cookie cutter houses in a tract.

 

Lower end pricing example a $300000 loan here are the actual numbers:

 Pennsylvania $300000 refinance loan single family not a row house not a condo

AOL Voxtur      $700  CPL $150

AOL Alter         $625  CPL $200

AOL CohenW   $590  CPL $200

ALTA FATCO   $625  CPL $25

ALTA DOMO   $610  CPL $25

ALTA ATLAS    $610  CPL $25

__________________________ California $400000 refinance loan SFR no PUD Akerman AOL  $1200    CPL $200 Katten AOL      $1100    CPL $200 Voxtur AOL      not published but estimated $1000 FATCO ALTA    $642     CPL $25 DOMO ALTA    $604     CPL $25 ATLAS ALTA    $612     CPL $100 California refinance rates for $900000 loan on SFR  FATCO ALTA $835 CPL $25 DOMO ALTA $804 CPL $100 Voxtur AOL $1000 CPL $150 TEXAS however is a tricky and expensive title state $400000 no cash out refinance SFR noPUD Voxtur AOL  $700 CPL $100 FATCO ALTA $1823 CPL $25 Pricing for ALTA policy is based on county/city/loan amount/loan type

 

 The many endorsements lenders ask for depending on location, loan type, and who the loan is sold/securitized on secondary market:

https://www.republictitle.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/2017-Endorsement-Guide.pdf

 Fisher here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4sfAXEwIYT8

 

As you can see this can be graphed to disclose the sweet spots where cost savings exists. It is in loan amounts in jumbo range above $750000 and in certain states. 

 Texas, Hawaii, NY, DE, then DC have the highest title costs for ALTA policies per hundred thousand dollars. These states have various laws, topography concerns, and some are more litigious. 

The heavy lifting in costs are not title which have Federal price ceilings.

States using an attorney for closing have exorbitant and varied fees. Also in luxury markets that use escrow officers the delta of cost can vary 300%. A two million dollar sale in Washington State with a boutique escrow can cost $5000 while bundling it with matching title company costs $700.

Other large cost in a residential real estate transaction is points which borrowers use to buy down rate which is generally not a long term financial good bet.

 In summary small and mid sized lenders cannot afford the cost of the new baguette. Most will wait two years and see the numbers.

 

 

Fannie Mae Fixin' Homeownership

What’s new at Fannie Mae?

Product development to address today’s America. 

 Automated validation of income

Assess how to provide income, employment, and asset validation through an asset report. The objective is to simplify the provision of the verification services on Single-Family loans and reduce costs.

 The Work Number an ADP product 

Argyle, 

 Plaid, 

 Finicity, 

Credit Plus and Credit Aggregators, 

 Xactus 

Appraisal modernization

Processes to improve Single-Family valuation models, time efficiency, and reliability of real estate appraisals. This valuation process provides alternative options to conduct a property inspection that is leveraged by an appraiser who analyzes the inspection data and determines value.

 Equitable Housing Finance 

Waivers are the digital data compiled by: Fannie Freddie FHA USDA and Corelogic, FATCO etc AMC process digitized assignment 

Data Shared equity program certification system

Give lenders with safe harbor for certain community land trust Selling Guide requirements will increase lender participation in the shared equity market and grow the volume of shared equity loans delivered to Fannie Mae.

 Hometap 

 Point 

Unlock 

Unison 

 Nonprofit acquisitions of REO in disaster areas

Permit a nonprofit entity to be qualified as a Single-Family borrower with the objective of supporting FEMA-declared disaster areas to rebuild and preserve the availability of affordable rental housing.

 Missing Middle Grants - 

Rebuild Paradise https://www.rebuildparadise.org › grants 

https://www.regeneratingparadise.org/projects/ Paradise Cares 

https://www.paradisecadillac.com › paradise-cares 

 Magalia, CA and Paradise, CA 

Resident-owned communities

Serve Underserved Markets Plan for the Manufactured Housing Market, specifically Manufactured housing communities owned by a governmental entity, non-profit organization, or residents.

 Manufactured home community owners can increase space rents on a whim 

and it is costly and difficult to move the manufactured home. 

Some communities restrict owners from moving the manufactured home. 

This program allows the unit owners to buy the land of a community, 

govern the HOA as they see responsible, and allows more 

stable homeownership. 

 Expanded Housing Choice

This pilot aims to remove barriers to housing by 

incentivizing borrowers to accept housing choice vouchers. 

The pilot will initially focus on two states that 

do not have source of income protections – 

Texas and North Carolina.

 Housing Choice Voucher Program - 

DHA - Housing Solutions ... 

 the BVCOG Housing Choice Voucher Program! - Brazos ...

 Accessory Dwelling Units (ADUs)

Assessing whether the expansion of financing options for 

Single-Family homes with ADUs increases affordable 

supply of housing options.

 Fannie Mae’s new product is allowing the valuation of 

ADU’s to be included in appraisal value as permanent. 

In the past if the ADU was not permitted or 

allowed as a granny-flats by the county the 

value of the square footage and the rents were 

not part of the loan approval. 

This opens the way for more ADU’s along 

with Nationwide trends to ignore setbacks and some permit hurdles. 

 Will the GSE’s regulate Title costs by excluding the 

need for title insurance on certain low loan to value loans 

and no cash out refinances? 

Who will bear the cost of fraud, cloud, and liens? 

Probably the servicers, our government, and future borrowers.

 What are the reasons behind these new products? 

1. Level the playing field for Black and Hispanic borrowers 

who were not treated evenly in appraisal, income verification, 

etc. Digitizing tools remove human bias. 

2. Climate Extremes- flood, fire, storms causing more 

FEMA disasters and the need to rebuild. 

3. Covid changed where people work. Remote work is here to stay. 

4. Covid stresses on homeowners who go forbearance 

and now are in trouble repaying.

5. Need for more affordable housing 

6. Methods to reduce costs in homeownership 

7. The GSE’s are not for profit and duty to help Americans 

© Caroline Gerardo NMLS 324982

Best CRM Marketing Tools For Real Estate and Lending

 

Choose best CRM service marketing list for real estate, loans, lending, partners

Av

Shopping for a contact management system that your real estate clients will interact with and love?

We all need to keep lists of emails phone numbers and details to keep up. Doing an EXCEL spread sheet long ago became insufficient to hold enough information and categorize. There are many free and paid services. I suggest you do a free trial first and enter three clients and try out the email, see if the SMS or text is easy, look for one that allows video if you are already filming your own content. The key really is to create your own useful information that your target needs. No one likes annoying emails saying buy my book, buy my wrinkle cream. Soon as you get the opt out to subscribe you lost them.

Here is my ranking of about one hundred CRM apps, websites, tools you can check out. Some are desktop, some are cloud based, many work with mobile phones. What is it you need? How many users do you plan to team up? Know your own needs. Many are free or offer free trials. Make sure they agree not to share your list. If they don’t offer free service then try another one there are thousands to choose from.

 

Podio

❤️ https://www.podio.com

 

 

Zoho CRM,

https://www.zoho.com

 

 

Realeflow,

https://www.realeflow.com

 

FreedomSoft

https://www.freedomsoft.com

 

Insightly

https://www.insightly.com        

Pipedrive

https://www.pipedrive.com

 

Goldmine

https://www.goldmine.com

 

The great advantage of goldmine an old But a great CRM SAAS is that you own it. When you move companies no one can steal your client list I bought mine in 1995 for $22But now it is $3100 – perhaps negotiable

             

Infusionsoft now called KEAP

https://www.keap.com

 

Boomtown

 

Liondesk

 

Top Producer CRM

 

 REIMobile

 

Bitrix

 

ACT!

 

Highrise

 

Active Campaign

 

Sales Force

 

REI Black Book

 

Propelio

              SUGARcrm

              Contactually

 

              Hubspot

 

              REI AUTOMATER

 

REI Pro

 

Pipeline Deals

 

RealtyJuggler

 

Streak

 

IMS

 

Suite crm

 

REI/lit

 

BaseCRM

 

 REI Automation Squad

Brivity,

Less Annoying CRM

 Vtiger CRM

 

Follow Up Boss

ClientLook

Microsoft Dynamics

Vulcan7

 Freshsales

Godfather CRM

 IXACT Contact

 amoCRM,

 kvCORE I get the most questions from Realtors struggling with how to use this one

Nimble,

REsimpli,

 ProsperWorks,

Agile CRM

Real Geeks

 Monday

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

              4.          

5.           Zendesksell

6.           Net suite