Mortgage Rates Verses Historic Recessions and Economic Inflation

30-year Conventional Conforming Mortgage Rates

Verses Economic Crisis, Inflation, then Recession

1973 Oil crisis and 1974 Stock market crash

1/1973     8.54  1 point

11/1973   8.58  1 point

3/1975     8.89  1.1 point

12/1975   9.1    1 point

 

 

January -July 1980 Volker tries to curb inflation/ W shaped

 

12/1978   10.3  1.4 points

 

July 1981 -11/1982 Iran Revolution oil prices

 

9/1981     13.9  1.7 points

10/1981  18.16  2.1 points

 

 

July 1990 -March 1991 Oil prices skyrocket

 

7/1990  12.03  2.5 points

3/1991  9.52    2  points

 

3/2001- 11/2001 dot com bubble

 

3/2001  6.05  2 points

 

11/2007- June 2009 Housing Crash

 

11/2007 6.01 .5 point

12/2009 4.98 .5 point

 

1/2020- 4/2020 Covid

11/2020 2.77 .7 point (lowest point)

 

 

5/2022 -  future post covid/ oil/ Russia/supply chain

January – current rate

3.45 0.7 3.76 0.8 4.17 0.8 4.98 0.8 5.23 0.9 6.25

I am not an Economist but as you see in the past most recessions were triggered by oil related financial crisis. I'm saying we are in recession now today 6/23/2022. Our current Administration had a goal to get US off oil dependency but we are no where near that reality today. Gas at my local pump is $6.50

Mortgage rates are determined by market forces. Some of the market is data but most is emotion in my opinion. Today American news media is governed by fear, that is what sells. My prediction is rates will rise to 7.75 during the summer and fall back in around Halloween to 5 percent. Rates are for conforming conventional loans which is governed by the GSE's.

Overall historic chart here from Freddie Mac

https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms30