1/11/2016

Home Ownership


With Mortgage Rates still low
the benefits of home ownership
are many.
This info graphic reviews some
of the values.
To me the most important
are feeling you belong, being
able to make it your own,
creating an organic garden,
and raising my family.

What are the benefits
you are looking for?


1/08/2016

Mortgage Rates Like The Surf




Two hundred and ninety two thousand jobs are added to the economy in December versus 200k expected, I think the bond market should have moved at least one basis point. That is not the case. Here we stand this morning with the entire Treasury stack unchanged for the day. The 10yr is currently 2.14%, which is right in the middle of the range for the last 12 months. In fact the average 10yr yield for the past year was 2.135%. Additionally the 10yr is actually down since the Fed meeting when they raised interest rates and indicated they expect to raise rates around 4 times in 2016! So why is the Ten Year Bond down 15bps since December 16th? In fact why are both short term and long term rates down since the Fed announcement?
 
Falling oil prices and the glut of oil should be news to turn the Federal Reserve around, but they say that cheap prices at the pump are temporary
 
The Fed is monitoring INFLATION but in my eyes inflation has not jumped in the United States. Inflation has been below the Fed’s target of 2% for several years now. And it’s not just oil. The Bloomberg Commodity Index, which includes gold, natural gas, corn, copper, oil, soybeans, sugar, etc. is down 25% in the past year.
 
Bad news normally makes mortgage rates drop. THE CHINESE market and North Korea are bad news.
 
I don't think the gurus can ignore real job growth. Not gig second part time jobs, but real jobs.
 
Watching the stock market take some hits -- its like watching the surf on a day the tsumani sirens are singing.  The beach I walk my aged Golden Retriever is Salt Creek Beach in Dana Point California and there are tsunami signs posted on the hill. I think they went up about four years ago. Now that Honey, my Golden is 14 I don't take her down the steps as she will make me carry her home.
We have to watch the signs and listen. It used to be that the ten year bond was the tool to predict mortgage rates, today I'm not certain. Keep watching the surf, when the curve goes up... so will rates
Video of surf I took at my sister's home above in Moss Beach, California
 

1/07/2016

Mortgage Bankers Storm Troopers



The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) loyal to the Empire awakened Monday morning after a two week holiday hiatus.   
The results are both for the week ended January 1, 2016 which MBA adjusted for the Christmas and New Years Holidays.

MBA's Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage volume, was down 27 percent from the week ended December 18 on a seasonally adjusted basis.  On an unadjusted basis the Index was 50 percent lower. This is normal for holiday season as Borrowers take off work, head to the malls, movie theaters and share family dinners. 

The Refinancing Index declined 37 percent from the week of the previous report and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index was down 15 percent.

FHA  applications increased to 14.6 percent from 13.8 percent the previous week and the VA share was up to 12.9 percent compared to 11.6 percent. 

The USDA share of total applications remained unchanged at 0.6 percent.

Average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,000 or less) increased to 4.20 percent, its highest level since July 2015, from 4.19 percent, with points decreasing to 0.42 from 0.49.  The effective rate decreased.
Jumbo 30 year fixed rate mortgage (loan balances greater than $417,000) had an average contract interest rate of 4.09 percent compared to 4.07 percent.  Points increased to 0.35 from 0.34 and the effective rate was also higher.
Thirty-year Fixed Rate Mortgage backed by FHA had a slightly lower interest rate, 3.95 percent compared to 3.97 percent the previous period.  Points increased to 0.41 from 0.34 leaving the effective rate unchanged.
The largest change in contract rates among fixed rate mortgages was for the 15 year which rose 5 basis points to 3.47 along with a 2 basis point increase in points.  The effective rate also increased.
The average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs increased to 3.19 percent from 3.13 percent but points dropped to 0.32 from 0.52 lowering the effective rate.

Even with Janet Yellen predicting rising mortgage rates, over all we are only a "smidge" higher.

The Force Awakens now with mortgage bankers and Borrowers back to usual after the holidays.

With the stock market terribly earthquake volatile, I predict Borrowers will get off the fence and
move into the conservative home loan that they have been thinking about but not executing.

The time is now to lock your rate and get it closed.
Will Finn win in his battle with the storm troopers?


Caroline Gerardo
NMLS
324982

cell (949) 784-9699

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